Insights
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Financial Literacy Is Not Enough and Why Strategy is the Real Differentiator in Today’s Wealth Shift
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How the Federal Reserve's operations impact finances. Explore the roles of Fed governors, banks, and FOMC—plus what Jerome Powell's policies mean for your money.
…grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference. – Reinhold Niebuhr In a year that had already witnessed a noticeable uptick in volatility compared to the prior two years, the ongoing back and forth regarding looming tariffs, culminated in what has been described by many pundits as some of the most aggressive levies introduced since the 1890s. While the policy announcements themselves have been well telegraphed, the scope and scale are considerably higher than what was expected, as evidenced by the market’s harsh response. Rather than imposing tariffs based on pre-existing trade protections with our counterparties (i.e., existing tariffs, subsidies, or other barriers to entry) the formula to arrive at the tariffs focused more on the trade imbalance between the two nations. As the largest economy in the world, trading with nearly everyone, many of which are much smaller countries/economies, this was ripe for distortion. For those who have been long time followers of President Trump’s beliefs this should come as little surprise, a recent piece in the WSJ captures quotes dating back to the 1980s which share his perspective that the US was drawing the short straw and other nations should have to pay to access our robust and dynamic economy.  Going back to the days of the earliest trade when men roamed the earth hunting for food there has always been some degree of mercantilism whereby one group looks to accumulate power and wealth and protect their own interests, but in the Post World War II era, it’s inarguable that the US has benefited enormously from their embrace of “free trade” and capitalism. Our economy has grown a hundredfold since 1950 when it was approximately $270BB. The naysayers will point out that back then the US accounted for about 50% of global GDP, peak wealth, or about twice what it is today, but that fails to account for the fact that much of the world having fought the theatres of war in both Europe and the Pacific was in ruin and needing to be rebuilt. There is a misconception that both NAFTA (1994) and China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (2001) were the watershed moments leading to the hollowing out of the US’s manufacturing base, but in reality manufacturing employment had been in decline going back to 1950. At its peak US manufacturing workers accounted for about 30-35% of the nonfarm workforce, whereas today that level sits at around 8% where it has hovered for the last 15 years. In 2000 it was just 15% so still very much the minority. This long-term shift in the mix of the US economy where services now account for a disproportionate percentage of GDP and the workforce overall is the result of a far more skilled workforce driving both innovation and productivity. Surely some manufacturing jobs have left based on the focus on corporate profits, but some of the change relates to comparative advantage and inexpensive labor. It’s not to say, that we should look to push all manufacturing to the most “efficient” destination, surely it’s important to maintain control of manufacturing of critical components to defense, information technology or medicine, but it seems unrealistic at best to expect that we can produce enough and at reasonable costs to satisfy our insatiable demand. We are after all only about 5% of the world’s population, though we account for 25% of global GDP. Talk about punching above our weight. Aside from the logistical challenges that reshoring/onshoring pose, not to mention the timeline associated with the payback for such efforts, the willingness or lack thereof on the part of the business and consumers alike beg the question of whether or not it is worth pursuing. Considering our societal tendencies for policy to reverse course every 4-8 years with Washington’s constant changing of the guard which has grown even more partisan in recent years, it’s hard to envision the private sector making these investments where there may be little or no long-term benefit to the majority of stakeholders, mainly consumers and shareholders alike. If we are being intellectually honest, as we have seen with the likes of Amazon, if automation or robotics can do the work better than human beings, who need benefits and breaks, the case for this policy bolstering manufacturing employment seems weak at best. That’s one of the key pillars of the artificial bull case after all. In addition, there is clear evidence that economies which produce a disproportionate amount of goods versus services are much more susceptible to the boom bust cycle as demand for goods themselves is far more cyclical, look no further than Japan and Germany whose export driven economies have largely languished for the last 20 years in the slow growth/no growth period in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. Let’s put all this into context, according to the World Trade Organization as of 2023 the US had a trade weighted tariff rate of 2.2% lower than nearly all countries around the world. For a country that is such a massive importer one might argue the low levels fostered healthy trade relations with some of our key allies and admittedly some frenemies or altogether poor bedfellows. With these sweeping tariffs, some as high as 49%, this marked a significant shift in policy where the aforementioned tariff rates will approach 30%, having a significant and lasting impact on consumers and businesses alike. Whether you want to describe a tariff as something different than a tax seems to be semantics, the added expense is rarely fully eaten by the producer. In the aftermath of the pandemic and the correspondingly high inflation due to excessive fiscal and monetary policy along with supply side disruptions, its doesn’t require too much detective work to know the average American is exhausted or outraged by higher prices. The tariffs will only add to the price at the register unless we all of a sudden find the private sector extraordinarily benevolent, willing for much if not all of the added costs to result in shrinking margins. By now you have surely figured out why there was such a market kerfuffle, but let’s make sure to fully examine why the result was to shave $3 trillion of market value off of US stocks in one day, which supposedly is the equivalent of 5 years’ worth of tariff receipts. First and foremost, despite opening the year with an economy bumping along with real GDP around 2.50% we have seen a sharp decline in the soft data, where surveys from the confidence board and University of Michigan plumb levels we have not seen going back to the pandemic when fears of a severe respiratory infection and 10% unemployment were front of mind. The hard data has been only a little better as labor has held up thus far, but as we have seen in Retails Sales there are signs that the consumer may be tapped out or growing wearier. With GDP likely to be between negative .5% to positive .50% for Q’1 that it’s like slamming on the brakes while driving in the passing lane. No surprise that there may be a real sense of whiplash. As the odds of a recession have risen, something the President himself acknowledges, it’s safe to assume expectations for earnings growth this year and next seem to be slipping away. With valuations stretched, there has been little margin for error and it’s those stocks, some of the most expensive that have felt the impact that much more acutely. This is why we have heard the “Mag 7” referred to as the “Lag 7” here in early 2025. Now you might be thinking this is likely transitory, a word that is making its rounds again after an ill-feted debut to Wall Street vernacular in 2022. If we are in fact, we are likely to see a shift to a more capital-intensive economy, is it reasonable to justify such high multiples which made more sense in an asset light, intangible heavy ecosystem? It seems hard to justify, from this vantage point. Hopefully, we will avert a recession, but that’s not to say it is an all-clear sign for the stock market. Earnings recessions, like that of 2022, may not lead to large scale job losses and disinflation, but increase the prospects for a bear market. There is a risk here that those fat margins whither because of trade frictions and lead to something more pernicious like a repeat of the stagflation episode of the 1970s and early 1980s where higher inflation sucks the oxygen out of the room leaving little room for real growth. So, what is an investor to do… Well for one thing, maintaining discipline in the form of diversification has helped and likely will continue to, with investors who have roughly half of their portfolio in overseas stocks and fixed income, the positive returns in these two areas have been able to offset some of the decline in US stocks. Incorporating other assets like Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs), gold or real estate may help mitigate the risk somewhat but as we have seen in the past times of market angst correlations often increase, giving the appearance there is no place to hide. Eventually markets will calm down, as the last of the sellers capitulate, though that process can take weeks or even months to play out. I’ll leave you with some quotes from some of the smartest minds on Wall Street to ponder as we head into the weekend. “Sometimes the share price of a firm tells the CEO of that firm nothing about their company they didn’t already know. Other times, the stock market takes on the role of “active informant.” Stock prices predict investment because they provide business managers with useful information about the future. I think now is probably one of those times. -Neil Dutta, Head of Economics, Renaissance Macro “We all know the math: the stock market has historically grown by 10-11% over the long run but only gone up 60-70% of the time. That means it has corrected 30-40% of the time. Surviving those drawdowns is the price of admission.” -Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments “We are a great nation, the leader of the free world. Yet we squander our political power to appease the textile industry in the Carolinas! We should instead be setting a standard or the world by practicing freedom of competition, of trade, and of enterprise that we preach. -Milton Freidman This presentation is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third-party sources and is believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way whatsoever. This presentation may not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and does not give investment recommendations. Any opinion included in this report constitutes our judgment as of the date of this report and is subject to change without notice. Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part 2 available upon request or at the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
We have all heard the adage… “Don’t fight the Fed.” That was sage advice back in 2022 as the Fed embarked on the most aggressive tightening cycle dating back 40 years. That year both stocks and bonds withered, ending the year down by double digits, you would have to go back to 1941 the last time both asset classes showed losses for the year when you use the 10-year Treasury as a proxy for the bond market. Now with the pendulum shifting from tightening monetary policy to “easier money” everyone is trying to understand what that means for the economy and their portfolio in the months and years ahead. Lately the narrative has shifted a bit, there is a growing chorus that believes that monetary policy and by that we are really referring to the Fed’s setting of overnight interest rates in an economy dominated by bits and bites versus the more tangible attributes of yesteryear has less impact today. Or perhaps, it’s those long and variable lags Milton Friedman was referring to as higher rates are still making their way through the economy. If that is the case it stands to reason that even if liftoff is September it may take time for lower rates to exert their influence. In this piece we are going to explore rates from a few different perspectives. One thing to make clear, we are not market timers and market rates are a byproduct of not just Fed policy, but numerous other factors, like growth and inflation expectations, fiscal policy, the state of geopolitics etc… We can use the past as a prologue have been taking and will continue to take some steps on behalf of our clients whose assets we are managing for important life goals.  Equity Investing U.S. Stocks When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it typically has a positive impact on US stock markets. If that is to play out again now, making sure that your portfolio is allocated properly when the Fed is inclined to cut rates is critically important. Here are some key points on how and why this occurs: Lower Borrowing Costs : Reduced interest rates make borrowing cheaper for companies and consumers. Newly lowered rates can lead to increased spending and investment, which often boosts corporate profits and, consequently, stock prices. Increased Consumer Spending : With lower interest rates, consumers may be more prone to take out loans for big-ticket items like houses and cars. Increased consumer spending can drive higher sales and earnings for companies, positively affecting their stock prices. Improved Corporate Earnings : Companies with existing debt benefit from lower interest payments, which can improve their profitability. This can lead to higher stock valuations. Shift from Bonds to Stocks : Lower interest rates typically lead to lower yields on bonds. Investors seeking higher returns might move their investments from bonds to stocks, positively impacting stock prices. Economic Confidence : A rate cut is often seen as a proactive move by the Fed in support of the economy. This can boost investor confidence, leading to increased buying activity in the stock market. Sector-Specific Impacts : Certain sectors, such as technology and consumer discretionary, often benefit more from lower interest rates due to their reliance on borrowing for growth and consumer spending patterns. Sectors that are highly capital intensive or with significant fixed costs stand to benefit more than asset light business historically. Financials tend to see their net interest margins or “NIM” shrink as rates come down, though a protracted period with an inverted yield curve may be less make lower rates less of a headwind if the curve returns to its normal sloping relationship where longer rates are higher than shorter rates. Manufacturers could see a benefit if lower rates mean a lower dollar making their goods more competitive when it comes to global trade. Small Cap Stocks With the incredible rise of the Magnificent 7 stocks, small cap stocks have been overlooked. A change in outlook by the Fed may create an environment for small cap stocks to continue to climb. Lower Borrowing Costs : Small-cap companies, which often have higher debt ratios than larger companies, benefit considerably from reduced interest expenses when rates are cut. Lower borrowing costs can improve their profitability and support expansion efforts whether it be adding to their workforce or expanding research & development. Growth Potential : Small-cap stocks are typically seen as growth-oriented investments. Afterall, companies that are now among the largest companies in the world like Amazon, Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft all started as small caps! Lower interest rates can spur economic activity, benefiting smaller companies that may be more agile and able to capitalize on new opportunities. Increased Risk Appetite : Rate cuts can increase investor confidence and risk appetite. Investors may be more willing to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward small-cap stocks during periods of lower interest rates. Access to Capital : Lower interest rates can make it easier and cheaper for small companies to raise capital, whether through loans or equity offerings. This can help them invest in growth initiatives, leading to higher stock prices. Overseas Equities Yield differentials may narrow : Foreign capital has been lured into US assets for many years dating back to the European Debt Crisis in the early 2010s. If US interest rates look less attractive by comparison than foreign capital may be onshored and find its way into local stock markets. A weaker dollar may ease inflation and lower borrowing costs : A more common phenomenon in the emerging markets where consumption of commodities represent larger percentages of overall spending may allow for capital to be directed more productively and as foreign companies and countries often offer dollar bonds to institutional investors to hedge the currency risk the cost of that interest could drop if the local currency strengthens vs. the dollar. Foreign assets may offer a store of value : Should the dollar weaken, it stands to reason that it’s losing ground to some other currency; that relationship can serve as a hedge to offset the diminishing purchasing power of local assets. After a long run with a stronger dollar, if there is a secular shift underway that will unfold over the years ahead, having some additional exposure aboard would be valuable from both a risk and return perspective. The combination of more attractive valuations should provide a little extra incentive to increase the ex-US holdings in the portfolio, even if it is just at the margins. One thing to keep in mind, in the past monetary policy has generally been pretty well coordinated, but if that is to change in the years ahead it will be that much more important to have some professional oversight to help navigate what could result in a little more short-term volatility. Stocks historically have fared well when the easing cycle begins, though it’s not always the case, especially if the easing is in response to a shock to the economy or deteriorating fundamentals. The latter does not appear to be the case today though there are signs of continued cooling in the labor markets where with the former, a shock, well, that’s tough to predict, after all it wouldn’t be considered a shock. It’s those known unknowns or unknown unknowns, that get you in trouble to quote the late Donald Rumsfeld.